San Diego Has Two Housing Markets This Fall. Which One Are You In?

October 23, 2026•4 min read

San Diego Has Two Housing Markets This Fall. Which One Are You In?

By Michael Dullea, Dullea Brokerage

I get asked the same question almost every week: "Is it a buyer's market or a seller's market right now?" My honest answer this fall is: it depends on what you're buying. The September numbers for San Diego County make that clearer than ever.

Houses: tight supply, prices holding

The median single-family home in San Diego County sold for $1,079,000 in September. That's up 5.8% from last year, even with mortgage rates about a full point higher than they were last fall.

The reason is supply. There were only 2,950 single-family homes for sale countywide, down almost 13% from a year ago. That works out to 2.4 months of inventory. Anything under about four months still favors sellers, so detached homes remain competitive, especially well-priced ones in established neighborhoods.

That said, things have cooled from summer. The median slipped 3.2% from August, and the average home took 37 days to sell. Buyers aren't stuck in bidding wars on every listing anymore.

Condos: more choice, more room to negotiate

Condos and townhomes are a different story. The median was $670,000, essentially flat from last year. Inventory rose to 2,734 units, up almost 6%, and supply hit 4.0 months. Condos are taking about 44 days to sell.

I'm seeing this firsthand with our own clients. Condo sellers who price based on last spring are sitting. Buyers, meanwhile, are getting help with closing costs, rate buydowns and repairs that simply weren't on the table a year ago.

If you're a first-time buyer, this is the part worth paying attention to. A condo has been the most common entry point into San Diego ownership for years, and right now it's the segment where you have the most leverage.

What rates are actually doing

Freddie Mac's national average for a 30-year fixed was 7.32% the week of October 22, down slightly from 7.40% the week before. A year ago it was 6.19%.

Here's what that looks like in real dollars. On a $536,000 loan (80% of a $670,000 condo), principal and interest runs about $3,682 a month at 7.32%, compared with roughly $3,279 at last year's rate. That's about $400 a month more, before taxes, insurance and HOA dues.

That gap is the main reason sales are down. Closed sales fell 14% from last September and pending sales fell 16%. Fewer people are moving, but the people who do need to move are still getting deals done.

My dad, Mike, handles the lending side of our team, and his advice right now is simple: don't try to time the bottom. Buy the home that fits your budget today. If rates come down later, refinancing is an option worth planning for, not a promise to count on.

What I'd do right now

If you're buying a condo: Get fully pre-approved, then negotiate. Ask for seller credits toward a rate buydown or closing costs. Read the HOA documents closely, because reserves and special assessments matter more than the list price.

If you're buying a house: Expect less competition than spring, but don't expect a discount on the best homes. Be ready to move when the right one comes up.

If you're selling a house: You're still in a good spot, but price for today's market, not for May. Homes that are priced right are still selling in about five weeks.

If you're selling a condo: Pricing is everything. Budget for buyer credits from the start, make the place show well, and have your HOA paperwork ready early so nothing slows down escrow.

The bottom line

San Diego isn't crashing, and it isn't booming. It's splitting. Houses are still tight. Condos have opened up. Knowing which side you're on changes your whole strategy.

If you want to talk through your situation, whether that's buying, selling or just running the numbers, our team covers both the real estate and the mortgage side. Reach out anytime.

Michael Dullea, REALTOR® | DRE #02402448

Market data: SDAR/San Diego MLS Monthly Indicators, September 2026, and C.A.R. Rates: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of Oct. 22, 2026. Mortgage figures are illustrative national averages, not a quote, rate lock or commitment to lend. Actual rates, payments and approval depend on credit, loan program, property and other factors. Mike Dullea, NMLS #455330.

Sources

Michael N. Dullea

Michael N. Dullea is a San Diego-based real estate agent and mortgage professional at Dullea Brokerage. Working alongside his father, Mike Dullea, Michael specializes in combining hyper-local market data with innovative financing strategies to help buyers and sellers in Chula Vista, Bonita, and beyond. He is the creator of the "Michael’s Market Minute" and the "Dullea Monthly Digest."

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